It’s pretty much the talk on both coasts, and everywhere in-between – with Facebook approaching a 75 B valuation, Venture Capitalists tripping over each other for up-rounds for $30-100 M B/C rounds – it’s a reasonable question to ask – are we in a bubble now? Would we know when we are in a bubble?
My personal thoughts — the M&A/IPO/funding market was so quiet for so long, that springing back to this accelerated/hot market as the “new normal” *feels* like a bubble, more than it is (but I’d say we’re well on the way to bubble land again!).
However, just like in all bubbles, the people who have a vested interest, i.e. are going to make money off the bubble – the VCs, investment bankers, etc are going to perpetuate the idea that “this time is different” — trust me — this time will not be any different from any other prior bubble – there will be LOTS of losers and a few winners — but, it doesn’t mean the ride, exhilaration and excitement of living through another “tech boom” won’t be a tremendous fun for everyone involved — but, temper your expectations and you’ll be much happy when the inevitable pop of the bubble comes … whether it’s one year or three, it’s hard to tell. But, just scan the headlines – the more stories about bubbles (like 2004/2005/2006 in housing) the closer we are getting to a peak.
In closing, I love this quote from a Venture Capitalist: [“There is effervescence, but no bubble,” says Geoff Yang, a founding partner of Redpoint Ventures.] — nothing like parsing words – last time I checked my dictionary, effervescence means lots of little bubbles all around!
What are your thoughts? Are we in a bubble now, headed there?
Full USA Today article linked here http://usat.me?44952522
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